The final SEC Newgate Mood of the Nation for 2024 reinforces that cost of living will be the battleground of the upcoming Federal election – and while it is still neck and neck between the major parties, the Coalition has just nudged ahead on who is best placed to manage cost of living issues.
The report finds that 72% of Australians nominate cost of living as a major concern, with the proportion rating home ownership as extremely important up 5% to 54%.
There are green shoots for the Federal Government, with economic confidence rising in the community, including growing confidence that inflation is moderating and economic conditions will improve over the next quarter, year and three years.
35% of Australians are confident that inflation will fall over the next year, up 4% in this survey, and up 10% since July. However, 65% still lack confidence in the direction of inflation. Labor supporters (47%) are those who believe most strongly that inflation is falling, while women and Greens voters are the least confident (28%).
Pessimism about the economic outlook is falling. On the three-month outlook, pessimism fell sharply, with 33% now thinking the economy will deteriorate in three months (down 12% from 45% in September). On the long-term outlook, 54% believe the economy will be better in three years (up 4%) vs 32% who feel it will be worse.
The Coalition now leads (30%/29%) on this indicator which is strongest with men (36%) and weakest with 18 to 34 year olds (21%). Labor is strongest amongst women (28% Labor, 25% Coalition).
Almost a quarter of Australians (23%) say a pre-election fall in interest rates would make them more likely to vote Labor, rising to 29% if they are mortgage holders. A cut would have the biggest impacts on voting intentions of 18 to 34 year olds (36%). Two thirds of Australians say it would have no impact.
Almost four in five Australians support reducing property taxes, particularly stamp duties, to assist housing affordability, while two-thirds support more generous first homeowner grants and capping rent increases.
The Albanese Government says it would be happy to make the next election a referendum on the Coalition’s proposal to lift the ban on nuclear energy in Australia. With support for renewable sources of energy continuing to be much higher than for nuclear, 42% of Australians oppose a removal of the nuclear ban, while 33% want the ban lifted. Support for a ban removal is strongest amongst men (48%) and Coalition supporters (55%).
As abortion emerged as a surprise issue in the Queensland election, 64% of Australians say that in the next Federal election they would be less likely to vote for any political figure who restricts access to abortion rights; only 11% would be more likely to vote for them.
Contact us for more information about the full Mood of the Nation research report or if we can help you navigate community or stakeholder sentiment or expectations.
David Stolper, Partner, SEC Newgate Research – [email protected]
Sue Vercoe, Managing Partner, SEC Newgate Australia – [email protected]
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